🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "serious consequences" in August should Russia's president persisted hindering ceasefire talks, he finally imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was created by both nations' officials lacking Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

This plan would effectively reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, the former president persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will please the ruler. However, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a damaged area of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the responsible government that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in status the presently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear path to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would enable future conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal places no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Any radical doctrine and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken comparable accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of captured land in the Donbas to the government – why should anyone have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "immediate joint military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include unclear to concerning. The plan would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Concern

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not