Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
