A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
